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The much-anticipated 5G mobile standard won't be finished until 2020, but the people who'll make it happen were busy throughout 2015 trying to define it. One thing that's clear already is that 5G won't be like 4G. Rather than just making phones and tablets faster, the next generation of mobile technology will be asked to serve many uses, each with different requirements.
This was a year for sorting through those demands.
"A lot of progress has been made," said Tolaga Research analyst, Phil Marshall.
"Effectively, we're trying to find the right set of technologies to use."
While the needs are abundant, the choice of possible ways to meet them is also wider than ever. Ultra-high frequencies that until
recently were considered impossible to use for mobile services could deliver much
higher speeds. Emerging systems that can send data across the network in a trickle may let Internet of Things devices last
years on tiny batteries. And researchers are working on reducing delays so messages we
need for tasks like driving can
be delivered on time.
Rest assured that 5G will be faster than 4G. This year, everyone had something different to say about how much faster.
Ericsson said it had achieved 5Gbps on a testbed for 5G, surpassing the fastest LTE
networks by about 50 times.
Samsung demonstrated potential 5G
technologies running at 7.5Gbps
and got a stable 1.2Gbps signal
to a minivan traveling at highway
speed. The European Commission's
5G Public-Private Partnership set
a goal for the new standard of
100 times faster than 4G, and
Japanese carrier NTT DoCoMo said
it planned to achieve that kind of speed ( 10Gbps) in partnership with vendors including Ericsson, Alcatel-Lucent, Nokia and Samsung.
Samsung Electronics
Samsung demonstrates 1.2Gbps data
transmission over a prototype 5G
wireless network to a vehicle traveling
at 100kmph. But making mobile faster will
take more than better radios and
antennae. Operators will also need more spectrum, which will
bring government decision-making
into the mix. The U.S. Federal
Communications Commission started
down the path to opening up some
promising new bands this year,
recognizing that process could take a long time.
Faster, by itself, won't be enough for 5G. It needs to go slower, too. It will have to
connect the growing Internet of
Things, where devices like sensors and meters won't have much data to send but will have
to fit in tight spaces and last
longer on batteries. Dedicated narrowband networks for Iot gained ground in 2015, and the developers of 5G want to make
sure the future standard can play, too.
That calls for new options on
radio networks but also new ways
of sharing those networks,
Tolaga's Marshall said.
Subscribers use mobile broadband
services in a pretty consistent way, while many IoT devices like
sensors send bursts of traffic
that aren't always urgent. It
takes a lot of overhead to make
all those uses share a network,
so 5G may include a special way
to handle bursty traffic that's
more like the way Wi-Fi works, he
said.
It's also becoming more obvious
that 5G will have to connect
things like self-driving cars and
augmented-reality headsets. Those
need data to arrive right on
time. For one thing, 4G can't
get below 10 milliseconds of
latency, so that will have to
change. Marshall said. But the
next standard may also mean a
whole new network architecture
with less information in
centralized data centers and more
spread around its edges,
including in devices, he said.
For example, if a cluster of cars
going down a highway needs
information about each other to
keep from colliding, a
conventional network can't handle
it if there are more than two
cars, he said. At that point,
delays in getting to a central
cloud are too long, so the data
has to stay local. "The cloud
... has to be embedded in the
car," Marshall said.
Needs and possible solutions got
clearer this year, but 5G
development is far from done.
Next, those crafting the standard
will have to decide what goes
into the first release of 5G and
what will have to wait for later
updates. They won't finish
hashing that out in 2016,
Marshall said.
Still, everyone wants to be out
in front of 5G development and
deployment, and 2015 saw a lot of
jockeying for position.
Just like 3G and 4G, the 5G
specification will be drawn up by
the 3GPP (Third-Generation
Partnership Project) and approved
by the International
Telecommunication Union. But
vendors and policymakers want to
influence the standard. In
October, several large regional
groups agreed to hold meetings
every six months to build
consensus on what should go into
5G. That followed a similar
agreement-to-agree in September
between China and the European
Union.
Even with the standard still
about five years away, 2015 was a
good year for promises of the
first 5G network. NTT DoCoMo said
it would roll out the first
commercial system ahead of the
2020 Summer Olympics in Tokyo.
South Korea's KT Telecom said it
would have one in 2018 for that
country's Winter Olympics.
Verizon Wireless went one better,
claiming it would start field
trials of 5G in 2016, leaving
some observers to ask exactly
what kind of 5G that might be.
But there was at least one
concrete sign of progress on 5G
this year. In June, the ITU
settled on an official name for
it: IMT-2020. Unfortunately,
about all that tells us is that
it's not here yet.
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